Nuclear deterrence and the prevention of war: the case study of India and Pakistan

Shafaq Hussain
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Abstract

There are a number of existing theories of deterrence, mainly nuclear deterrence, that explain how states avoid the probability of war when they acquire nuclear power. While most theories generally explain how states deter each other, there is also a deterrence debate between the IR scholars Kenneth Waltz and Scott Sagan over nuclear proliferation assuring security and nuclear proliferation increasing the threat of destruction. Similarly, the stability-instability paradox provides how deterrence lowers the likelihood of war, but the minor skirmishes continue. Under these different theories of deterrence, this paper studies the case of deterrence between India and Pakistan, the two nuclear neighbors and adversaries.
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核威慑与防止战争:印度和巴基斯坦的案例研究
现有的一些威慑理论,主要是核威慑理论,解释了国家在获得核力量时如何避免战争的可能性。虽然大多数理论一般都解释了国家之间如何相互威慑,但国际关系学者肯尼斯·瓦尔兹(Kenneth Waltz)和斯科特·萨根(Scott Sagan)之间也就核扩散确保安全与核扩散增加毁灭威胁的问题进行了威慑辩论。同样,稳定-不稳定悖论说明了威慑如何降低战争的可能性,但小规模冲突仍在继续。在这些不同的威慑理论下,本文研究了印度和巴基斯坦这两个核邻国和对手之间的威慑案例。
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