Probabilistic Project Duration Estimation by Combination of PERT and PLET in High-Risk Project

Seon Gyoo Kim, Junyoung Kim
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Abstract

Abstract : PERT(Project Evaluation and Review Technique) is typical method in order to probabilistically establish the schedule plan for large scale complex project or mega project. PERT technique is impossible to estimate relationship of each activity probabilistically when there are overlapping relationships because it is limited to Finish-to-Start(FS) relationship. In order to overcome this kind of limitation of PERT technique, PLET(Probabilistic Linkage Evaluation Technique) has been suggested to probabilistically estimate project duration for various overlapping relationships for each activity. However, estimating project duration by PLET technique only considers uncertainty of relationship between activities and not activity time, thus it is not the perfect duration estimating method. The main objective of this research is to propose the integration model of PERT and PLET and verify its probabilistic validity. By verifying application of time calculation method of integration model in practical case, this research will suggest probabilistic project duration estimating method in schedule plan of high-risk construction industry.
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基于PERT和PLET的高风险项目工期概率估计
摘要:PERT(Project Evaluation and Review Technique,项目评估与评审技术)是为大型复杂项目或大型项目概率制定进度计划的典型方法。PERT技术由于局限于从完成到开始(FS)的关系,无法在存在重叠关系的情况下对各活动之间的关系进行概率估计。为了克服PERT技术的这种局限性,人们提出了概率关联评估技术(Probabilistic Linkage Evaluation technique, PLET),对每个活动的各种重叠关系进行项目持续时间的概率估计。然而,利用PLET技术估算项目工期只考虑了活动与活动时间之间关系的不确定性,并不是一种完美的工期估算方法。本研究的主要目的是提出PERT与PLET的整合模型,并验证其概率有效性。通过验证集成模型时间计算方法在实际案例中的应用,本研究将提出概率项目工期估算方法在高风险建筑业进度计划中的应用。
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