On certain trends of world economy's development

Abstract

This report contributes to the modeling of GDP's per capita trajectories of the world's largest countries using nonlinear trend-stationary models. Three main clusters of countries are identified and the lack of convergence of their trajectories is shown. A significant shift of the trajectory for the G7 countries is shown under the impact of the 2008 crisis. As the factors of this shift, trends in the sectoral changes and the growth of income inequality are highlighted.