{"title":"The Relative Price of Housing and Subsequent GDP Growth in the USA","authors":"R. Waldmann","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3495585","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In the USA a high relative price of housing is associated with log GDP growth over the following 5 years. It is possible to forecast the great recession using this pattern and a trend both estimated with 20th century data. The forecast recession is even more severe than the actual recession.","PeriodicalId":287116,"journal":{"name":"CEIS: Labor Economics","volume":"74 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2019-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"CEIS: Labor Economics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3495585","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In the USA a high relative price of housing is associated with log GDP growth over the following 5 years. It is possible to forecast the great recession using this pattern and a trend both estimated with 20th century data. The forecast recession is even more severe than the actual recession.
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