Dealing with uncertainty in design of port infrastructure systems

Abstract

Ports exist by the grace of international trade. In the volatile and uncertain environment of globalization, liberalization, rapidly changing technologies, competition, threats and budgets, this trade is highly unpredictable and investments in port infrastructure therefore highly risky. The aim of this paper is to establish that the uncertainties due to these unexpected developments cannot be actively managed through traditional approach of scenario building for demand forecasting but only through flexible and evolutionary designs.