Forecast of electric vehicle charging demand based on traffic flow model and optimal path planning

Abstract

With the popularization of intelligent navigation system on electric vehicles, it's possible to obtain real-time distribution of electric vehicles in a given region. Based on traffic flow model and M/M/s queuing theory, this paper presents a mathematical model for the prediction of charging load at charging station. To get the charging distribution generated in the driving process, an optimal path planning model based on the Dijkstra algorithm is proposed. Besides, for the sake of formulating the dynamic spatial charging demand distribution map of the traffic network region, the Monte Carlo sampling method is adopted. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed models in analyzing the charging demand distribution.