The Risk Assessment of Crime Prevention System Based on Risk Entropy Model

Guo Xi, Ruimin Hu, Yongjun Peng, Jingjing Dai
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, crime prevention issues become serious in China each day. Although various security facilities have played a positive role in the field of crime prevention, defects exist in poorly designed systems targeting personnel protection, physical protection, and electronic protection. Therefore, it is a major strategic task to improve risk assessment techniques and promote the objective evaluation of the risk in such area. In this paper, we present the concept of risk entropy based on the Shannon information theory, derive the risk entropy model of security node, and further analyze the expression and calculation of security node risk entropy. On the other hand, we generate the abstract security network simulation model to study the path dependence of the calculation method on security network risk entropy with a broad crime prevention system formed by connecting security node with traffic network. Finally, we complete the risk assessment of crime prevention system according to the security network. The results show that the risk entropy model is in line with the objective reality. We believe this model can not only break through bottlenecks in the technology of objective risk assessment but also bear important scientific significance in the applications of scientific prediction and effective prevention for public safety emergency response system.
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基于风险熵模型的犯罪预防系统风险评估
随着工业化和城市化的快速发展,中国的犯罪预防问题日益严重。虽然各种安全设施在预防犯罪领域发挥了积极的作用,但在人员保护、实物保护、电子保护等方面存在设计不完善的缺陷。因此,提高风险评估技术水平,促进风险的客观评价是该领域的一项重大战略任务。本文基于香农信息理论提出了风险熵的概念,推导了安全节点的风险熵模型,并进一步分析了安全节点风险熵的表达与计算。另一方面,我们生成了抽象的安全网络仿真模型,通过将安全节点与交通网络连接形成一个广义的犯罪预防系统,研究了计算方法对安全网络风险熵的路径依赖性。最后,根据安防网络完成了犯罪预防系统的风险评估。结果表明,风险熵模型符合客观实际。我们认为,该模型不仅可以突破客观风险评估的技术瓶颈,而且对于公共安全应急系统科学预测和有效预防的应用具有重要的科学意义。
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