A Novel Prediction Model of Expressway Electromechanical Equipment Life

Abstract

Expressway electromechanical equipment operation status is related to many factors, it exists a lot of uncertainty and randomness. First, the relation among the transition probabilities, the limit probabilities and the equipment state of the time rolling window is calculated by using the Markov chain theory to master the variation of equipment failure. Then, according to the bathtub curve theory and combining with the method of Markov chain, the transfer probabilities and the probabilities limit are analysed to determine the effective life of the equipment. Based on the Markov chain, a new life prediction model is established to study the fault probability trend and the historical fault data are analysed to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the prediction model.