[Influence of population growth on national health care (author's transl)].

Abstract

In the Federal Republic of Germany a decline of population is expected, because fertility is very low. This article deals with the implications of this trend for the health system. On the basis of population models and population forcasts the author comes to the conclusion that in the long run the burden of health costs will not become lower but higher, because of the growing proportion of old people. Nevertheless it is supposed that the influence of other factors than demographic ones may be greater.