Beyond the beyond and the extremes of computing

T. Sterling
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Abstract

Twenty five years ago supercomputing was dominated by vector processors and emergent SIMD array processors clocked at tens of Megahertz. Today responding to dramatic advances in semiconductor device fabrication technologies, the world of supercomputing is dominated by multi-core based MPP and commodity cluster systems clocked at Gigahertz. Twenty five years in the future, the technology landscape will again have experienced dramatic change with the flat-lining of Moore's Law, the realization of nanoscale devices, and the emergence of potentially alien technologies, architectures, and paradigms. If Moore's Law were to continue to progress as before, we would be deploying systems approaching 100 Exaflops with clock rates nearing a Terahertz. But by then, power constraints, quantum effects, or our inability to exploit trillion way program parallelism may have forced us in to entirely new realms of processing. This presentation will consider the range of alternative technologies, architectures, and methods that may drive the extremes of computing beyond the current incremental steps of the current era.
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超越了计算的极限和极限
25年前,超级计算由矢量处理器和新兴的SIMD阵列处理器主导,处理器的频率为几十兆赫兹。今天,随着半导体器件制造技术的巨大进步,超级计算的世界由基于多核的MPP和以千兆赫为时钟的商品集群系统主导。未来25年,随着摩尔定律的确立、纳米级器件的实现以及潜在的外来技术、架构和范式的出现,技术领域将再次经历戏剧性的变化。如果摩尔定律继续像以前一样发展,我们将部署接近100百亿亿次浮点运算的系统,时钟速率接近1太赫兹。但到那时,功率限制、量子效应或我们无法开发万亿级并行程序,可能会迫使我们进入一个全新的处理领域。本演讲将考虑各种替代技术、体系结构和方法,这些技术、体系结构和方法可能会推动计算的极限,超越当前时代的当前增量步骤。
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