External expansion of the dairy market: Arguments "for" and "against"

Abstract

The Russian agro-industrial complex is the most important branch of the national economy participating in the program of import substitution and ensuring food security of the country. At the moment, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation is implementing an export-oriented model of agricultural development. In the article, the author analyses the dynamics of foreign trade operations in the dairy food market. The information base for the integrated assessment was the data of Rosstat and the Customs Service on group 04 Dairy products TNVED. The dairy industry within the country shows progressive growth — gross production has been increasing since 2017. However, domestic agricultural producers cannot cover the domestic need for milk and dairy products. As a result — an increase in foreign economic operations. The analysis showed an increase in exports and imports. This is due to the influence of many factors. Factors and trends affecting their volumes in the short and long term were identified — the composition and structure of the balance of milk and dairy products resources, average per capita household income, average prices for dairy products, milk consumption per capita per year, volumes of foreign trade operations, etc. The built dynamic econometric models made it possible to distinguish limiting factors for each type of foreign economic transactions. For imports, these are average consumer prices for milk and annual consumption of dairy products per capita. For export — average consumer prices for dairy products. By influencing these factors, it is possible to ensure an increase in demand and supply in the dairy industry. The conclusions made in the article can be used to develop and substantiate state agri-food policy.