{"title":"Impact of Climate Change on Integrated Management of Water Resources in The lower Basin of Diyala River, Iraq","authors":"Ruaa A. Talib, M. Shamkhi","doi":"10.31185/ejuow.vol10.iss3.400","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Climate change could affect the world's water resources system, especially at the level of the basin. Climate change would impact streamflow and corresponding future water resources. The lower basin of the Diyala River is currently experiencing water shortage and contamination issues. This study aims to use Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model to create an integrated modeling system for evaluating the effects of climate change on water supply and demand within the lower Diyala River basin. The WEAP model was calibrated and verified employing monthly streamflow data from the Diyala River outflow station. Following that, the calibrated model was loaded with various future scenarios ranging from 2020-2045. Future scenarios used included the reference scenario, the high population growth rate scenario, and the climate change scenario. The results indicated that the WEAP model accurately predicted the basin's water supply and demand, with RMSE, NSE, and R² values of 0.85, 0.91, and 0.867, respectively, throughout the validation period. Furthermore, Water demand and supply were found to be unmet in all projected future scenarios, showing that sustainable water management in the lower basin of the Diyala River is highly required.","PeriodicalId":184256,"journal":{"name":"Wasit Journal of Engineering Sciences","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Wasit Journal of Engineering Sciences","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.31185/ejuow.vol10.iss3.400","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
Climate change could affect the world's water resources system, especially at the level of the basin. Climate change would impact streamflow and corresponding future water resources. The lower basin of the Diyala River is currently experiencing water shortage and contamination issues. This study aims to use Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model to create an integrated modeling system for evaluating the effects of climate change on water supply and demand within the lower Diyala River basin. The WEAP model was calibrated and verified employing monthly streamflow data from the Diyala River outflow station. Following that, the calibrated model was loaded with various future scenarios ranging from 2020-2045. Future scenarios used included the reference scenario, the high population growth rate scenario, and the climate change scenario. The results indicated that the WEAP model accurately predicted the basin's water supply and demand, with RMSE, NSE, and R² values of 0.85, 0.91, and 0.867, respectively, throughout the validation period. Furthermore, Water demand and supply were found to be unmet in all projected future scenarios, showing that sustainable water management in the lower basin of the Diyala River is highly required.
气候变化可能影响世界水资源系统,特别是在流域层面。气候变化将影响河流流量和相应的未来水资源。迪亚拉河下游流域目前正面临缺水和污染问题。本研究旨在利用水资源评价与规划(Water Evaluation And Planning, WEAP)模型,建立气候变化对迪亚拉河下游流域水资源供需影响的综合建模系统。WEAP模型采用迪亚拉河出水站的月流量数据进行了标定和验证。随后,校准后的模型加载了2020-2045年的各种未来情景。所使用的未来情景包括参考情景、高人口增长率情景和气候变化情景。结果表明,WEAP模型对流域供水量和需水量的预测精度较高,验证期内RMSE、NSE和R²值分别为0.85、0.91和0.867。此外,在所有预测的未来情景中,水的需求和供应都无法满足,这表明迪亚拉河下游流域非常需要可持续的水管理。