A Study of Risk Analysis Methods Based on Uncertain Event Analysis in Strategy Decision-Making

Abstract

A kind of strategy decision-making risk analysis method is put forward based on uncertain event analysis, on the basis of potential uncertain events confronted in decision-makings. In this method, a model is constructed to generate the decision-making option space, with detailed generation ways based on the risks of uncertain events. By comparing the potential capacities of the enemy, self-army and the third party, the occurrence probabilities and consequent losses of uncertain events are quantified. Extreme event samples were selected by means of conditional expectation to obtain the quantified description of each risk. Three ways of analyzing the quantified results are proposed.