Residential Load Forecasting based on Deep Neural Network

Abstract

This paper presents residential load forecasting using multivariate multi-step Deep Neural Networks (DNN) such as LSTM, CNN, Stacked LSTM, and Hybrid CNN-LSTM. A preliminary Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) is conducted, and the decision variables are identified. An elbowing method is used to determine the number of clusters. Data is categorized based on weekdays, weekends, vacations, and Covid-Lockdown. Dimensionality-reduction using principal component analysis (PCA) is conducted. Seasonality-based clustering is found to improve the DNN model prediction accuracy further. A comparative analysis employs error metrics such as RMSE, MSE, MAPE, and MAE. The multivariate LSTM model with feedback is found to be the best fit model with the better performance indices.