Mathematical Study of Effect of Temperature on Transmission Dynamics of Dengue Disease

J. Kafle, Prakash Bayalkoti, G. R. Phaijoo
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Abstract

Dengue fever is found in tropical and subtropical regions around the world. It is a vector-borne disease that is transmitted by female aedes mosquitoes infected with one of four dengue viruses (DENV1- DENV4). SEIR compartmental model is used to examine the transmission of the disease in the present work. The model has four compartments for the human population, susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered and also four compartments for the mosquito population immature, susceptible, exposed, and infected. The impact of temperature on the dynamics of dengue disease transmission is described by this model. The basic reproduction number of the model is computed by implementing the Next Generation Matrix Method. Sensitivity analysis is performed to establish the relative importance of the model parameters and mathematical results are shown graphically.
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温度对登革热传播动力学影响的数学研究
登革热在世界各地的热带和亚热带地区都有发现。登革热是一种病媒传播疾病,由感染四种登革热病毒(DENV1- DENV4)之一的雌伊蚊传播。在本工作中,使用SEIR区室模型来检查疾病的传播。该模型有四个隔间分别代表人类群体,易感、暴露、感染和恢复,还有四个隔间分别代表未成熟、易感、暴露和感染的蚊子群体。该模型描述了温度对登革热传播动力学的影响。采用新一代矩阵法计算模型的基本再现数。通过灵敏度分析来确定模型参数的相对重要性,并用图形显示数学结果。
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