Quantitative Model of Collision Causes in Japan

Abstract

Sea route around Japan has high traenc density. The ratio of ship's collision is 62,6% represented from the total kind ofmarine accidents sinee 1998-2008 (Marine Accident Inquiring Agency(MAIA),Japan). Measuring for risk minimization, such as the quantitative method, which evaluated with respect to their performance relationships between man, machine, media and management, is still very rarely used. Furtherrnore, the development of quantitative model in a simple and sequential way would be helpfu1 to explain and predict phenomena in the accident to the specific problems that are used. As a result the probability relationships between causes of collision in the term maritime transport systems have been estimated. Kbywords: marine casualty, eauses ofcollision, maritime transport system, human element, quantittttive modet