Long-Term Changes in Conditions for the Development of Conventional Thermal and Non-Carbon Energy Technologies in the Power System of the Far East

2019 International Science and Technology Conference "EastСonf" Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI:10.1109/EASTСONF.2019.8725359

F. Veselov, I. Erokhina, T. Novikova

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The article examines the results of a study of the competitiveness of new gas, coal, nuclear, wind and solar power plants for their development in the electric power system of the Far East of Russia in modern conditions and until 2030. Taking into account the forecasts of capital costs and fuel prices by the criteria of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), the changes in the economic conditions for the emergence of non-carbon power plants in the power system of the Far East are estimated. It is pointed that cheapening of these technologies should be supported by a reduction of the cost of capital to improve economic opportunities for their development in competition with the thermal generation in terms of LCOE analysis. In addition to this, supplemental costs related with the integration of renewable generation sources into power system are also investigated as a negative factor for their expansion. Competitive positions of power plants in the electric power system of the Far East as sources of electric power export to the Asia-Pacific countries were also studied using the actual cost and performance data as well as the forecasts of local fuel prices in China and Japan.

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远东电力系统中常规热能和非碳能源技术发展条件的长期变化

本文考察了在现代条件下至2030年俄罗斯远东电力系统中新建的天然气、煤炭、核能、风能和太阳能发电厂的竞争力研究结果。考虑到电力平准化成本(LCOE)标准对资本成本和燃料价格的预测，对远东电力系统中出现无碳电厂的经济条件变化进行了估计。有人指出，在降低这些技术的成本的同时，应降低资本成本，以便在LCOE分析方面改善其发展与火力发电竞争的经济机会。此外，与可再生能源纳入电力系统相关的补充成本也作为其扩展的负面因素进行了研究。还利用实际成本和性能数据以及中国和日本当地燃料价格的预测，研究了远东电力系统中发电厂作为向亚太国家出口电力的来源的竞争地位。

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2019 International Science and Technology Conference "EastСonf"

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