Forecasting Housing Requirements in a College Town

Abstract

A simple housing projection model that employs the economic-base and gravity-interaction theories is presented, and the results are compared with those of a parallel study that incorporates the cohort-survival and straight-line projection concepts. It is through such an examination in a small and isolated region, State College, Pennsylvania, that the assets and liabilities of the simple model are clarified. It is hypothesized that the foundation of the economy in the region is the Pennsylvania State University, which serves as the key basic activity from which nonbasic activity is generated. Employment is treated as the primary catalyst for initiating change in the aggregate demand for housing. The projected size and location of the local work force, coupled with the distance people are willing to commute to work and the structural type of housing they prefer, are considered as the major determinants of residential location. The study indicates that the subject model provides more realistic results than the parallel study. The region’s well-defined economic base is cited for a more reliable forecast.