Analisis Hubungan Dinamis Instrumen Kebijakan Moneter di ASEAN

M. Rasyidin, M. Saleh, S. Hartati
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Abstract

The central bank as the monetary authority has the right to conduct monetary policy through setting monetary targets such as interest rates, controlling the money supply and stabilizing the inflation rate. The main objective of monetary policy is that its achievements can only be seen from a long-term perspective, meaning that everything is prepared now to achieve the main goals in the future. Monetary policy can be expansionary or contractionary. The linkage between policy instruments and the main targets through transmission channels is known as the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study examines the dynamic relationship between monetary policy instruments in ASEAN. This research model uses VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) by testing Stationarity Test (Unit Root Test), Optimum lag selection and cointegration test. The results showed that not all ASEAN countries have a dynamic relationship between monetary policy instruments. Only Indonesia and Brunei Darussalem have dynamic relations between monetary instruments. While Laos only relates to money supply and interest rates, while the dynamic relationship between inflation and interest rates only occurs in the Philippines, other ASEAN countries such as Cambodia, Myanmar, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam do not have a relationship between monetary policy instruments instruments.
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东盟货币政策工具动态关系分析
中央银行作为货币管理机构,有权通过设定利率等货币目标,控制货币供应量,稳定通货膨胀率来实施货币政策。货币政策的主要目标是,它的成就只能从长远的角度来看,这意味着现在一切都准备好了,以实现未来的主要目标。货币政策可以是扩张性的,也可以是紧缩性的。政策工具通过传导渠道与主要目标之间的联动被称为货币政策传导机制。本研究探讨东盟各国货币政策工具之间的动态关系。本研究模型采用向量误差修正模型(VECM),通过平稳性检验(单位根检验)、最优滞后选择和协整检验。结果表明,并非所有东盟国家的货币政策工具之间都存在动态关系。只有印度尼西亚和文莱两国的货币工具之间存在动态关系。老挝只涉及货币供应量和利率,而通货膨胀和利率之间的动态关系只发生在菲律宾,其他东盟国家如柬埔寨、缅甸、马来西亚、新加坡、泰国和越南没有货币政策工具之间的关系。
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