IMPACT OF THE EUROPEAN FUNDS ON BULGARIA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH AND OF THE NMS-11’S ECONOMIC GROWTH AS A GROUP

K. Durova
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the short-term and long-term relationship between European funds and economic growth in the new member states (NMS-11) as a group and Bulgaria in particular in the period 2014-2020. The influence of EU funding on the economies of NMS and Bulgaria has been assessed through a methodology based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The research results imply that, as a public investment, the absorbed EU funds affect the economic growth of the NMS – 11 in the short term, but not in the long term. The analysis of the relationship between economic growth and the EU funds absorbtion rate in Bulgaria indicate that there is a short-term positive but not long-term impact of the absorbed EU funds on the growth rate of real GDP.
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欧洲基金对保加利亚经济增长的影响以及新兴市场国家-11作为一个整体的经济增长
本研究的目的是分析2014-2020年期间欧洲基金与新成员国(NMS-11)特别是保加利亚的经济增长之间的短期和长期关系。欧盟资金对NMS和保加利亚经济的影响通过基于自回归分布式滞后(ARDL)模型的方法进行了评估。研究结果表明,作为一项公共投资,吸收欧盟资金对NMS - 11的经济增长具有短期影响,但不具有长期影响。对保加利亚经济增长与欧盟资金吸收率关系的分析表明,吸收的欧盟资金对实际GDP增长率有短期的积极影响,但没有长期的积极影响。
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