How Much Difference in Earthquake Risk among China’s Areas: A Study based on Pricing a Seismic Catastrophe Bond

Yong Zhang, Wei Liu
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Abstract

: According to China's earthquake magnitude data from 1970-2009, we employed the extreme value distribution model to analyze the difference of annual maximum magnitude between China's major earthquake-prone provinces. By a stochastic simulation method, we give an example of pricing catastrophe bonds in earthquake-prone areas. It shows that the potential risk varied widely in different regions. As a conclusion, we suggest establishing a multi-level seismic risk financing mechanism, and it should be established in some special areas firstly.
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中国地区地震风险差异有多大——基于地震巨灾债券定价的研究
根据1970-2009年中国地震震级数据,采用极值分布模型分析了中国主要地震多发省份的年最大震级差异。利用随机模拟方法,给出了地震多发地区巨灾债券的定价问题。研究表明,不同地区的潜在风险差异很大。因此,建议建立多层次的地震风险融资机制,并首先在一些特殊地区建立。
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