Day ahead electricity price forecast by NARX model with LASSO based features selection

Abstract

The availability of accurate day-ahead price forecasts is crucial to achieve an effective participation to electricity markets. Starting from available state of the art, we propose a forecast technique exploiting a nonlinear auto regressive model with exogenous input, including a feature selection mechanism based on the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO). The rationale behind such a choice is twofold. On the one hand, we aim to target potential increase of forecast accuracy by learning complex non-linear mappings. On the other hand, we want to increase the interpretability of the resulting model and minimize the effort needed to properly set up the forecaster. A framework such as the LASSO, capable to self-extract features from spot price multi-variate time series, might represent a very useful tool for industrial practitioners. Experiments have been performed on Italian market dataset, demonstrating that the proposed method can extract useful features and achieve robust performance. Moreover, we show how the proposed method can support interpretation of forecaster structure and it can reveal interesting correlations within the regression set.