Research of forecasting in "Poor" information system of multi-element

Abstract

The traditional gray model GM (1,1) is a kind of deviation of the exponential model, with fewer required data, forecasting of high precision and no need prior information, etc., but sometimes its forecasting is ineffective. “Poor” information systems are found everywhere. In this paper, a control approach to “poor” information systems, such as social economic systems, is proposed. Firstly, “poor” information processing and SCGM-model will be discussed. Secondly, we will develop an optimal controller of “poor” information systems. The result shows that the improved gray forecasting model SCGM-model, which is simple and practical and has higher accuracy and less error, can provide scientific theoretical basis for the relevant departments to make strategy. A demonstrating example shows the fitting and forecasting results of SCGM (1,h) are rather satisfactory