Research on Photovoltaic Consumption Based on Occurrence Probability of Typical Scenarios

Abstract

With the continuous increase in the access of new energy sources such as photovoltaics in the power system, in order to reasonably evaluate the photovoltaic consumption of the power system, this paper proposes a photovoltaic consumption evaluation method that considers the probability of typical scenarios. The method firstly performs cluster analysis on the historical data of photovoltaic output to obtain multiple typical scenarios of photovoltaic output and their occurrence probability, and then takes the maximum photovoltaic power consumption as the objective function to solve the maximum photovoltaic power consumption under each typical scenario. Finally, the final photovoltaic consumption is obtained by multiplying the maximum photovoltaic consumption in each scenario by the occurrence probability of the corresponding scene and summing up. The example analysis shows that, compared with the solution method of a single typical scenario, the photovoltaic consumption based on the occurrence probability of the typical scene is more reasonable, and can effectively reflect the annual photovoltaic consumption of the power grid.