Use of Statistical Models in Yield Forecasting of Wheat, Mustard and Potato Crop in Western Districts of Uttar Pradesh, India

Abstract

Twenty five year (1992 to 2017) of weather data of wheat, mustard and potato crop for 11 districts Aligarh, Baghpat, Barielly, Bijnor, Bulandshahar, Gaziabad, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Rampur, Saharnpur and Sahjahnpur of Western Uttar Pradesh were used to develop pre harvest yield prediction model. Every year Agromet Field Unit (AMFU) Modipuram generate district level yield forecasting model for major crops (wheat, mustard and poatato) pre-harvest stage (F3) for the seasons i.e. rabi. Considering the importance of wheat, mustard and potato crop a attempt was made to develop pre harvest yield forecasting models, in the selected 11 districts of western Uttar Pradesh. The models were validated with 2015 and 2016 data set. The results revealed that per harvest for forecasting model had F3 stage R2 values between 0.44 to 0.96 per cent for wheat crop , 0.57 to 0.87 per cent for mustard crop to and 0.54 and 0.99 per cent for Potato crop in the different districts of western Uttar-Pradesh. During both the years of validation the observed yields were in good agreement with forecasted yield for wheat, mustard as well as potato crop.