Visitor Forecasting Wisata Bahari Lamongan (WBL) Using Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Seasonal ARIMA

Abstract

The revenue of city is determined by some factors, one of them is tourism sector. A problem of tourism sector is forecasting visitors Wisata Bahari Lamongan (WBL). Because data of the number of visitors WBL are fluctuating and seasonal, then it is required Seasonal ARIMA method. In the Seasonal ARIMA method, there are some parameters that should be optimized for producing forecasting with small mean square error (MSE). In this research, Seasonal ARIMA parameters will be optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). PSO is optimization algorithm inspired by behavior of birds group in searching food. Based on simulation results, PSO algorithm can optimize Seasonal ARIMA parameter which is optimal and it can produce forecasting result with small MSE.