Prediction of critical infrastructures safety

Abstract

The semi-Markov models is used to describe the complex systems operation processes. This model allows to tie the results of investigations of critical infrastructures inside-dependences together with the results concerned with critical infrastructures outside-dependencies. Linking of the inside and outside complex systems dependencies, under the assumed their structures multi-state models, is the main idea of the presented in the paper critical infrastructures safety analysis methodology. The proposed safety methodology is applied to safety modeling and prediction of a computational example.