An Empirical Analysis of Risk Factors in Aviation: Evidence from 1995-2016 NTSB Data

Abstract

At the beginning of the 20th Century, people endeavored into the skies for the first time. While this once audacious pursuit has become commonplace in 21st Century life, the safety of air travel has come at the expense of many aircraft accidents and incidents. Aviation safety analysis is traditionally retroactive, as new policies, procedures, practices, and regulation are driven by these accidents and incidents. The United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is currently advocating a more proactive approach to aviation safety wherein certain factors, whether they be environmental, mechanical, human, or some combination thereof are analyzed in order to identify the level of risk of an operation. The intent of this paper is to demonstrate two models by which risk analysis can be conducted using data that contains external factors and the outcome of the flight.