Macro Demand Spatial Approach (MDSA) with principal component analysis (PCA) on spatial demand forecasting for industrial area in transmission planning

Abstract

Macro Demand Spatial Approach (MDSA) is an approach introduced in long time electricity demand forecasting considering location. It will be used at transmission planning and policy decision on electricity infrastructure development in a region. In the model, MDSA combined with principal component analysis (PCA) method to determine the variables that affecting electricity demand in industrial area. The variables are different for each load sector. Hypothesis on unique variables affecting electricity demand on every load sector in the industrial area were analyzed with qualitative methods and references. The variables have no significant effect can be reduced by using PCA. The generated models tested to assess whether it still at the range of confidence level of electricity demand forecasting. At the case study, generated model for South Sumatra Subsystem as a part of Sumatra System is still in the range of confidence level.