Statistical Analysis of Photovoltaic and Wind Power Generation in Germany

Abstract

We do comparison between maximal and daily average production of photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy based on a transmission operator in Germany by using statistical analysis with di erent seasonality function. We adopt sun intensity as a seasonal function for PV and trigonometric function for wind, while the deseasonalized data are modelled by an autoregressive process. The stochastic component of both energies are rather well captured by skew normal distribution. Weak anticorrelation found between PV's and wind's residuals suggest that the well balanced of renewable energy supply is difficult to achieve. However, we can exploit this feature as a risk management strategy such as quanto options for non-renewable energy producers to hedge against high renewable energy generation.