The Turn of the Cycles

Abstract

In the emerging party system, the Democrats will probably be the dominant party. The two major political parties will face off over identity issues like race, sexuality, and religion, but each party will be internally divided over issues of class and economic inequality. These fissures will become more pronounced over time and provide a long-term path for depolarization. Because each party will have a populist and a neoliberal wing, new forms of cross-party alliances will become possible—although the Democrats will remain more economically egalitarian than the Republicans for the foreseeable future. Whoever figures out how to create these cross-party coalitions will drive the direction of reform. The next regime will probably be turbulent and politics will be anything but peaceful. Real change that breaks the stranglehold of economic inequality will only come from difficult times that still lay ahead. The good news is that the cycles of constitutional time are slowly turning. The elements of renewal are available, if people have the courage to use them.