On-Demand Mobility Cargo Demand Estimation in Northern California Region

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to study the potential market for electric Vertical-Takeoff-and-Landing (eVTOL) aircraft in the cargo delivery role in an urban network. Specifically, we study the potential small-package cargo operations network in the Northern California region. Recent developments in the cargo shipping industry have opened opportunities for faster modes of small-package delivery in intra-city markets. With increasing congestion of ground transportation modes and limited catchment areas, there is a potential for small-package, high-value cargo delivery using proposed eVTOL aircraft.The On-Demand Mobility (ODM) concept for cargo transportation could improve the speed and efficiency of the delivery of small packages to communities. The concept could expand the delivery services offered by traditional ground transportation modes. The concept, however, needs to offer compelling speed advantages at a reasonable cost. The objective of this study is to estimate the potential demand for ODM cargo operations in the Northern California area encompassing 17 counties. Annual cargo flows in the study area are estimated using the Transearch, Freight Analysis Framework 4, and Bureau of Transportation Statistics T-100 International datasets. A parametric analysis of market share presents the results of this study.The study presents a first-order impact analysis of ODM cargo operations on passenger ODM operations. A significant challenge in this study is the lack of specific level of detail of the shipment cost of the various databases used. Generally, private cargo companies do disclose detailed records of shipments to the public.