Multi-Asset Pricing Modeling Using Holding-Based Network in Energy Markets

Wentao Wang, Junhuan Zhang
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Abstract

This paper combines multi-asset pricing model with network theory to study multiasset pricing in the holding-based network. We obtain a new expression of equilibrium price by inducing the network parameter. To testify the practical significance of our model of real asset prices, we fit the quarterly prices of stocks from four energy indices and measure the fitting effect. Firstly, we analyze the evolution of network properties and find: the numbers of shareholders of the CSI 300 Energy stocks and the S&P 500 Energy stocks are more stable than those of whom invest in the SSE Energy Sector stocks and the SZSE Energy Sector stocks; in addition, the networks from the more stable stocks are denser than those from the less stable one; the market crash during the period of June to September 2015 causes a critical drop in the quantity of shareholders and increases in shareholders’ co-holding behavior and stability; the shareholders of American listed energy companies have strengthened co-holding behavior and higher stability than those of China’s listed energy companies. Secondly, by defining the fitting coefficient F evaluating the fitting effect under different risk aversion scenarios, we argue that the investors of the SSE Energy Sector stocks, the SZSE Energy Sector stocks, the CSI 300 Energy stocks and the S&P 500 Energy stocks, are respectively risk-averse, risk-neutral, risk-loving and risk-neutral. Thirdly, by plotting the PDFs and CCDFs of stock returns, compared to the Gaussian distribution, we find that both the fitted returns and the real returns depict the features of high kurtosis and fat tail. Eventually, the comparison shows that, in diverse levels of risk aversion for each energy index, the approach proposed in this research is more accurate in fitting relative to the conventional method.
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基于持有网络的能源市场多资产定价模型
本文将多资产定价模型与网络理论相结合,研究了基于控股的网络中的多资产定价问题。通过引入网络参数,得到了新的均衡价格表达式。为了验证实际资产价格模型的现实意义,我们从四个能源指数中对股票的季度价格进行拟合,并衡量拟合效果。首先,我们分析了网络属性的演化,发现沪深300能源股和标普500能源股的股东数量比上交所能源股和深交所能源股的股东数量更稳定;此外,来自稳定种群的网络密度大于来自不稳定种群的网络密度;2015年6 - 9月的股灾导致股东数量急剧下降,股东共同持股行为和稳定性增加;与中国能源上市公司相比,美国能源上市公司股东的共同持股行为更强,稳定性更高。其次,通过定义拟合系数F来评估不同风险厌恶情景下的拟合效果,我们认为上证能源股、深证能源股、沪深300能源股和标普500能源股的投资者分别是风险厌恶型、风险中性型、风险偏好型和风险中性型。第三,通过绘制股票收益的pdf和ccdf,与高斯分布进行比较,我们发现拟合收益和真实收益都描绘了高峰度和肥尾的特征。最后,对比表明,在各能源指标的风险厌恶程度不同的情况下,本文提出的方法相对于传统方法的拟合精度更高。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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