Green or Brown Future for the World: Geopolitical Dimensions of the EU Green Deal

I. Gulenc, Onur Sultan
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Abstract

Rising energy prices, ongoing negative impacts of the pandemic, and dependence on Russian natural gas have created a harsh political conjuncture for the European Union (EU) to implement the EU Green Deal’s regulations, including the strengthened Emission Trading System proposal, which was rejected by the EU Parliament on June 8. While CEOs of the carbon-intensive industries demanded the adaptation of a slow approach in phasing out the free carbon allowances by waiting for the establishment of an effective Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), some members of the EU Parliament, including Muhammed Chahim, the reporter of CBAM proposal, argues that watering down the proposed ETS and CBAM regimes would not be compatible with the overall emission targets of the EU Green Deal. The internal debates about the Fit for 55 Package, however, make it difficult to understand the geopolitical implications of the EU Green Deal on a global scale. At the dawn of the climate change-related disasters, the EU Green Deal has great potential in the transition to a more democratic and clean international order by changing the competitive nature of international relations and spreading a collaborative economic model.
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绿色还是棕色的世界未来:欧盟绿色协议的地缘政治维度
不断上涨的能源价格、持续的疫情负面影响以及对俄罗斯天然气的依赖,为欧盟(EU)实施《欧盟绿色协议》(EU Green Deal)的规定创造了严峻的政治形势,包括加强排放交易体系的提案,该提案于6月8日被欧盟议会否决。虽然碳密集型行业的首席执行官们要求在建立有效的碳边界调整机制(CBAM)之前,采取缓慢的方式逐步取消免费碳配额,但包括CBAM提案的记者穆罕默德·查希姆在内的一些欧盟议会议员认为,削弱拟议的碳排放交易体系和CBAM制度与欧盟绿色协议的总体排放目标是不相容的。然而,围绕“适合55人”一揽子计划的内部辩论,使得人们很难理解欧盟绿色协议在全球范围内的地缘政治影响。在与气候变化有关的灾难即将来临之际,欧盟绿色协议通过改变国际关系的竞争性质和传播合作经济模式,在向更加民主和清洁的国际秩序过渡方面具有巨大的潜力。
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