Global and Sensitivity Analyses of Unconcerned COVID-19 Cases in Nigeria: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Abstract

Covid-19 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Many measures have been made by World Health Organization (WHO), but these may be threatened by unconcerned infectious individuals (some infectious individuals who do not take the disease serious, by ignoring non-pharmaceutical intervention). A system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations that absorbs a class of unconcerned infectious individuals, is developed. An invasion threshold parameter, Rc, is derived using the next generation matrix approach. This is used to establish the global stability of COVID-19-free equilibrium points. The global asymptotic stability of COVID-19 persistence equilibrium solution is studied through the use of suitable LaSalle’s Invariance Principle with a Lyapunov function of Goh-Volterra type. The intervention of themodel key parameters is assessed through sensitivity analysis. Our results indicate that increase in the rate of hospitalization of the asymptomatic infectious and unconcerned infectious individuals after a compulsory national testing, could bring Rc below one. Our results suggest that there should be compulsory national testing and continuous enhancement, the awareness through effective risk communication concerning COVID-19 to the general public. Numerical simulations are carried out to validate the analytical results. Key-Words: COVID-19, unconcerned infectious individuals, testing, stability analyses, sensitivity analysis Received: March 11, 2021. Revised: April 25, 2021. Accepted: April 30, 2021. Published: May 4, 2021.