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A Novel Spatiotemporal Method for Predicting Covid-19 Cases 一种新的Covid-19病例预测时空方法
Pub Date : 2021-06-11 DOI: 10.37394/23206.2021.20.31
Junzhe Cai, P. Revesz
Prediction methods are important for many applications. In particular, an accurate prediction for the total number of cases for pandemics such as the Covid-19 pandemic could help medical preparedness by providing in time a sucient supply of testing kits, hospital beds and medical personnel. This paper experimentally compares the accuracy of ten prediction methods for the cumulative number of Covid- 19 pandemic cases. These ten methods include three types of neural networks and extrapola- tion methods based on best fit quadratic, best fit cubic and Lagrange interpolation, as well as an extrapolation method proposed by the second author. We also consider the Kriging and inverse distance weighting spatial interpolation methods. We also develop a novel spatiotemporal prediction method by combining temporal and spatial prediction methods. The experiments show that among these ten prediction methods, the spatiotemporal method has the smallest root mean square error and mean absolute error on Covid-19 cumulative data for counties in New York State between May and July, 2020. © This article is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en_US
预测方法在许多应用中都很重要。特别是,准确预测Covid-19大流行等大流行的病例总数,可以及时提供充足的检测试剂盒、病床和医务人员,从而有助于医疗准备。本文通过实验比较了10种新冠肺炎累计病例数预测方法的准确性。这十种方法包括三种类型的神经网络和基于最佳拟合二次插值、最佳拟合三次插值和拉格朗日插值的外推方法,以及第二作者提出的外推方法。我们还考虑了Kriging和逆距离加权空间插值方法。我们还将时空预测方法与时空预测方法相结合,提出了一种新的时空预测方法。实验表明,在10种预测方法中,时空预测方法对2020年5月至7月纽约州各县新冠肺炎累计数据的均方根误差和平均绝对误差最小。©本文在知识共享署名许可4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en_US的条款下发布
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引用次数: 1
Estimation of Multicomponent Reliability Based on Progressively Type II Censored Data from Unit Weibull Distribution 基于单位威布尔分布渐进式II型截尾数据的多分量可靠性估计
Pub Date : 2021-06-09 DOI: 10.37394/23206.2021.20.30
R. Alotaibi, Y. Tripathi, S. Dey, H. Rezk
In this paper, inference upon stress-strength reliability is considered for unit-Weibull distributions with a common parameter under the assumption that data are observed using progressive type II censoring. We obtain di_erent estimators of system reliability using classical and Bayesian procedures. Asymptotic interval is constructed based on Fisher information matrix. Besides, boot-p and boot-t intervals are also obtained. We evaluate Bayes estimates using Lindley's technique and Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. The Bayes credible interval is evaluated using MH method. An unbiased estimator of this parametric function is also obtained under know common parameter case. Numerical simulations are performed to compare estimation methods. Finally, a data set is studied for illustration purposes.
本文考虑具有共同参数的单位威布尔分布在采用渐进式II型截尾观测数据的假设下对应力-强度可靠度的推断。我们分别用经典和贝叶斯方法得到了系统可靠性的不同估计量。基于Fisher信息矩阵构造渐近区间。此外,还得到了boot-p和boot-t区间。我们使用Lindley技术和Metropolis-Hastings (MH)算法评估Bayes估计。采用MH方法对Bayes可信区间进行估计。在已知公共参数情况下,得到了该参数函数的无偏估计。数值模拟比较了各种估计方法。最后,为了说明目的,研究了一个数据集。
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引用次数: 1
Closed Form Solutions of Lyapunov Equations Using the Vech and Veck Operators 利用Vech和Veck算子的Lyapunov方程闭型解
Pub Date : 2021-06-02 DOI: 10.37394/23206.2021.20.28
N. Assimakis, M. Adam
New closed forms are presented of the solutions of the continuous and discrete Lyapunov equations using the vech and veck operators. The proposed solutions are faster than the classical solutions derived using the vec operator. The solutions via veck operator are faster than the solutions via vech operator. Key-Words: continuous Lyapunov equation, discrete Lyapunov equation, vec, vech, veck operator Received: April 6, 2021. Revised: May 20, 2021. Accepted: May 28, 2021. Published: June 2, 2021.
利用vech和veck算子给出了连续和离散李雅普诺夫方程解的新的封闭形式。所提出的解比使用vec算子得到的经典解要快。通过veck算子的解比通过vech算子的解要快。关键词:连续Lyapunov方程,离散Lyapunov方程,vec, vech, veeck算子修订日期:2021年5月20日。录用日期:2021年5月28日。发布日期:2021年6月2日。
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引用次数: 1
On the Diophantine equation 3^x+p^y=z^2 where p ≡ 2 (mod 3) 丢番图方程3^x+p^y=z^2,其中p≡2 (mod 3)
Pub Date : 2021-06-02 DOI: 10.37394/23206.2021.20.29
Wipawee Tangjai, Chusak Chubthaisong
Let p be a prime number where p ≡ 2 (mod 3). In this work, we give a nonnegative integer solution for the Diophantine equation 3x+py = z2. If y = 0, then (p, x, y, z) = (p, 1, 0, 2) is the only solution of the equation for each prime number p. If y is not divisible by 4, then the equation has a unique solution (p, x, y, z) = (2, 0, 3, 3). In case that y is a positive integer that is not divisible by 4, we give a necessary condition for an existence of a solution and give a computational result for p < 1017. We also give a necessary condition for an existence of a solution for qx + py = z2 when p and q are distinct prime numbers.
设p为素数,其中p≡2 (mod 3)。在这项工作中,我们给出了丢芬图方程3x+py = z2的非负整数解。如果y = 0,那么(p, x, y, z) = (p, 1 0 2)是唯一的解决方案为每个素数p方程。如果y是不能被4整除,那么这个方程有唯一解(p, x, y, z) =(2 0 3, 3)。如果y是一个正整数,不能被4整除,我们给一个解决方案的存在的必要条件和计算结果p < 1017。给出了当p和q为不同质数时,qx + py = z2解存在的必要条件。
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引用次数: 2
The Shock Reaction in a Simple Close Economy 简单封闭经济中的冲击反应
Pub Date : 2021-05-24 DOI: 10.37394/23206.2021.20.27
Adirek Vajrapatkul
As the general objective of a representative government is to achieve in creating the economic conditions that support the wellbeing of citizen, it, thus, needs to design and implement its policies in an appropriated manner. Hence, to support the valuable information for designing and implementing such policies, this work is designed to gain that information by trying to identify the reactions of various variables to government policies. To meet this objective, this work proposed a simple close economy Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with the public goods in the household consumption bundle. Also, the usual shocks studied in the DSGE model were included in the reaction investigation process. The Bayesian technique is then employed to estimate the model parameters by using the quarterly detrended data of Thailand in the period of 2001 to 2019. The result showed the crowding-out effect driven by government spending. Also, the reactions of the major macroeconomic variables to each shock were consistent with some previous studies. Key-words: DSGE, Close Economy, monetary policy, fiscal policy, Bayesian Estimation Received: March 15, 2021. Revised: May 10, 2021. Accepted: May 17, 2021. Published: May 24, 2021.
代议制政府的总体目标是创造支持公民福祉的经济条件,因此,它需要以适当的方式设计和实施其政策。因此,为了支持设计和实施这些政策的有价值的信息,这项工作的目的是通过试图确定各种变量对政府政策的反应来获得这些信息。为了实现这一目标,本文提出了一个简单的封闭经济动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,其中公共产品在家庭消费束中。此外,在DSGE模型中研究的常见冲击也被纳入了反应研究过程。然后利用2001 - 2019年泰国季度去趋势数据,采用贝叶斯技术估计模型参数。结果显示了政府支出推动的挤出效应。此外,主要宏观经济变量对每次冲击的反应与以前的一些研究一致。关键词:DSGE,封闭经济,货币政策,财政政策,贝叶斯估计修订日期:2021年5月10日。录用日期:2021年5月17日。发布日期:2021年5月24日。
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引用次数: 0
Toeplitz Like Operators on 2-nuclear Tensor Product of Hardy Spaces Hardy空间2核张量积上的Toeplitz类算子
Pub Date : 2021-05-20 DOI: 10.37394/23206.2021.20.26
A. Shatarah
in this paper, we investigated Toeplitz like operators on vector valued Hardy spaces. Toeplitz like operators on 2-nuclear tensor product of Hardy spaces are then constructed and described using the theory of p-nuclear tensor product of Banach spaces, and their basic algebraic properties and spectrum are analyzed. Key-Words: Toeplitz like operators , 2-nuclear tensor product of hardy spaces. Received: January 26, 2021. Revised: May 6, 2021. Accepted: May 14, 2021. Published: May 20, 2021.
本文研究了向量值Hardy空间上的Toeplitz类算子。利用Banach空间的p核张量积理论,构造并描述了Hardy空间的2核张量积上的Toeplitz类算子,分析了它们的基本代数性质和谱。关键词:Toeplitz类算子,hardy空间的2核张量积。收稿日期:2021年1月26日。修订日期:2021年5月6日。录用日期:2021年5月14日。发布日期:2021年5月20日。
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引用次数: 0
Two Probabilistic Models for Quick Dissimilarity Detection of Big Binary Data 大二进制数据快速不相似度检测的两种概率模型
Pub Date : 2021-05-19 DOI: 10.37394/23206.2021.20.25
Adnan A. Y. Mustafa, Safat Kuwait
The task of data matching arises frequently in many aspects of science. It can become a time consuming process when the data is being matched to a huge database consisting of thousands of possible candidates, and the goal is to find the best match. It can be even more time consuming if the data are big (> 100 MB). One approach to reducing the time complexity of the matching process is to reduce the search space by introducing a pre-matching stage, where very dissimilar data are quickly removed. In this paper we focus our attention to matching big binary data. In this paper we present two probabilistic models for the quick dissimilarity detection of big binary data: the Probabilistic Model for Quick Dissimilarity Detection of Binary vectors (PMQDD) and the Inverse-equality Probabilistic Model for Quick Dissimilarity Detection of Binary vectors (IPMQDD). Dissimilarity detection between binary vectors can be accomplished quickly by random element mapping. The detection technique is not a function of data size and hence dissimilarity detection is performed quickly. We treat binary data as binary vectors, and hence any binary data of any size and dimension is treated as a binary vector. PMQDD is based on a binary similarity distance that does not recognize data and its exact inverse as containing the same pattern and hence considers them to be different. However, in some applications a specific data and its inverse, are regarded as the same pattern, and thus should be identified as being the same; IPMQDD is able to identify such cases, as it is based on a similarity distance that does not distinguish between data and its inverse instance as being dissimilar. We present a comparative analysis between PMQDD and IPMQDD, as well as their similarity distances. We present an application of the models to a set of object models, that show the effectiveness and power of these models.. Key-Words: Big data, binary data, binary vector, matching, size invariance, probabilistic model, dissimilarity detection, pattern recognition, model matching Received: March 27, 2021. Revised: April 30, 2021. Accepted: May 6, 2021. Published: May 19, 2021.
数据匹配的任务经常出现在科学的许多方面。当数据与由数千个可能的候选数据组成的庞大数据库进行匹配时,目标是找到最佳匹配,这可能会成为一个耗时的过程。如果数据很大(> 100 MB),则可能会花费更多时间。减少匹配过程时间复杂度的一种方法是通过引入预匹配阶段来减少搜索空间,在预匹配阶段中,非常不相似的数据会被快速删除。本文主要研究大二进制数据的匹配问题。本文提出了二值数据快速不相似度检测的两种概率模型:二值向量快速不相似度检测概率模型(PMQDD)和二值向量快速不相似度检测逆等概率模型(IPMQDD)。通过随机元素映射可以快速完成二值向量间的不相似检测。检测技术不是数据大小的函数,因此差异检测可以快速执行。我们将二进制数据视为二进制向量,因此任何大小和维数的二进制数据都被视为二进制向量。PMQDD基于二元相似距离,它不能识别数据及其精确逆包含相同的模式,因此认为它们是不同的。然而,在某些应用中,一个特定的数据和它的逆数据被认为是相同的模式,因此应该被识别为相同的;IPMQDD能够识别这样的情况,因为它基于相似距离,不会将数据与其反向实例区分为不相似。我们提出了PMQDD和IPMQDD之间的比较分析,以及它们的相似距离。我们将这些模型应用到一组对象模型中,显示了这些模型的有效性和功能。关键词:大数据,二值数据,二值向量,匹配,大小不变性,概率模型,差异检测,模式识别,模型匹配修订日期:2021年4月30日。录用日期:2021年5月6日。发布日期:2021年5月19日。
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引用次数: 0
Sweeping surface of center curve on surface in Euclidean 3-space E³ 欧几里得三维空间E³中曲面中心曲线的扫面
Pub Date : 2021-05-07 DOI: 10.37394/23206.2021.20.24
R. Abdel-Baky, F. Mofarreh
For the curve on the regular surface, there is moving frame with this thatis named Darboux frame. Sweeping surfaces through the curve associated with Darboux frame are introduced and their geometrical properties are investigated. Moreover, we obtain the necessary and sufficient conditions of this kind of surfaces to be developable ruled surfaces. Finally, an example to illustrate the application of the results is introduced. Key-Words: Darboux frame, Sweeping surface, Singularity.
对于规则曲面上的曲线,有一个移动的坐标系叫做达布坐标系。引入了与达布框架相关的曲线的扫面,并对其几何性质进行了研究。此外,我们还得到了这类曲面是可展直纹曲面的充分必要条件。最后,通过实例说明了结果的应用。关键词:达布框架,扫面,奇点。
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引用次数: 1
Global and Sensitivity Analyses of Unconcerned COVID-19 Cases in Nigeria: A Mathematical Modeling Approach 尼日利亚非关注病例的全球和敏感性分析:一种数学建模方法
Pub Date : 2021-05-04 DOI: 10.37394/23206.2021.20.23
Faniran T. S.,, Bakare E. A.,, Potucek R.,, Ayoola E. O.
Covid-19 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Many measures have been made by World Health Organization (WHO), but these may be threatened by unconcerned infectious individuals (some infectious individuals who do not take the disease serious, by ignoring non-pharmaceutical intervention). A system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations that absorbs a class of unconcerned infectious individuals, is developed. An invasion threshold parameter, Rc, is derived using the next generation matrix approach. This is used to establish the global stability of COVID-19-free equilibrium points. The global asymptotic stability of COVID-19 persistence equilibrium solution is studied through the use of suitable LaSalle’s Invariance Principle with a Lyapunov function of Goh-Volterra type. The intervention of themodel key parameters is assessed through sensitivity analysis. Our results indicate that increase in the rate of hospitalization of the asymptomatic infectious and unconcerned infectious individuals after a compulsory national testing, could bring Rc below one. Our results suggest that there should be compulsory national testing and continuous enhancement, the awareness through effective risk communication concerning COVID-19 to the general public. Numerical simulations are carried out to validate the analytical results. Key-Words: COVID-19, unconcerned infectious individuals, testing, stability analyses, sensitivity analysis Received: March 11, 2021. Revised: April 25, 2021. Accepted: April 30, 2021. Published: May 4, 2021.
Covid-19是由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2)引起的。世界卫生组织(世卫组织)已采取了许多措施,但这些措施可能受到不关心的感染个体(一些不重视疾病的感染个体,忽视非药物干预)的威胁。建立了一个非线性常微分方程组,它吸收了一类不相关的传染性个体。入侵阈值参数Rc是使用下一代矩阵方法导出的。用于建立无covid -19平衡点的全局稳定性。利用合适的LaSalle不变性原理和Goh-Volterra型Lyapunov函数,研究了COVID-19持续性平衡解的全局渐近稳定性。通过敏感性分析对模型关键参数的干预程度进行了评价。我们的研究结果表明,增加无症状感染者和非关注感染者在国家强制检测后的住院率,可以使Rc低于1。我们的研究结果表明,应该进行强制性的国家检测,并通过有效的风险沟通不断提高公众对COVID-19的认识。数值模拟验证了分析结果。关键词:COVID-19,非关注感染个体,检测,稳定性分析,敏感性分析修订日期:2021年4月25日。录用日期:2021年4月30日。发布日期:2021年5月4日。
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引用次数: 5
Spacelike Surfaces with a Common Line of Curvature in Lorentz-Minkowski 3-Space 洛伦兹-闵可夫斯基三维中具有共同曲率线的类空间曲面
Pub Date : 2021-05-04 DOI: 10.37394/23206.2021.20.22
M. Saad, A. Ansari, Muhammad Usman Akram, F. Alharbi
This paper aims to study spacelike surfaces from a given spacelike curve in Minkowski 3–space. Also, we investigate the necessary and sufficient conditions for the given space-like curve to be the line of curvature on the space-like surface. Depending on the causal character of the curve, the necessary and sufficient conditions for the given space-like curve to satisfy the line of curvature and the geodesic (resp. asymptotic) requirements are also analyzed. Furthermore, we give with illustration some computational examples in support of our main results.
本文的目的是从闵可夫斯基三维空间中给定的类空间曲线出发研究类空间曲面。同时,研究了给定的类空间曲线是类空间曲面上的曲率线的充分必要条件。根据曲线的因果性质,给出了给定类空间曲线满足曲率线和测地线的充分必要条件。对渐近需求也进行了分析。此外,我们还举例说明了一些计算实例来支持我们的主要结果。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
WSEAS Transactions on Mathematics archive
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