Persian Hegemony Once – Iranian Hegemony Now?

Abstract

The Islamic Republic of Iran hegemon strategy is a clear and present danger to the Middle East; the strategy exacerbates ethnic and sectarian tensions and poses a danger of nuclear proliferation in the region. This analysis traces the roots of the Islamic Republic of Iran strategy as driven by Shiite religious imperatives and Iranian national interests. Two recent events, the resultant chaos from the Arab Spring and the new U.S. policy of disengagement from the Middle East changed the Middle East geostrategic environment; the residual consequences of the Arab Spring produced new threats to Iranian security and the United States progressive disengagement altered the regional strategic calculus. Iran adapted to the evolving environment to achieve major strategic advantages. Iran achieved increased political influence in countries flanking Saudi Arabia, gained additional leverage in the nuclear negotiations with the U.S., and deployed Iranian military forces outside Iran in a de facto sectarian war. The primary conclusion is Iran has effectively used the U.S. disengagement policy and localized vulnerabilities, which emerged in the Arab Spring chaos, to seize increased Iranian political and military freedom of action in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.