Improving the Accuracy of Destructive Earthquake Prediction by Transforming the Small Probability Event to Conditional Probability Event

Abstract

As we all know, the possibility of heavy earthquake is tiny, however, the destructiveness is serious, so it is important to improving the veracity of predicting destructive earthquake. This paper using the database of the destructive earthquake precursor, by defining the small probability even and estimating the parameter of success rate in small probability event prediction and changing the parameter, to transform the small probability event to conditional probability event. This paper attempts to find a way to improving the possibility of destructive earthquake which belongs to small probability events.