On the security of the Republic of Poland at the turn of the 20th and 21st century. It was, is and probably will be fine

Abstract

The author refers to his reflections from the period 1993–2009. They were included in the studies of the Polish Institute of International Affairs and the institutions of the Ministry of National Defense. He points out that the presented analyzes of the international security in Poland’s vicinity of that time led to the conclusion that the threat of war to Poland in the next 15–20 years is not very similar. Such a conclusion was also included in the penultimate Strategic Defense Review of the 2009–2011 edition of the Ministry of National Defense. The author is of the opinion that the situation of Poland and the political and military conditions mean that aggression against Poland will be tantamount to a conflict on a large scale. Political and military tsunami. A conflict that will involve key actors on the international scene. The author recalls the opinions expressed by Jarosław Kaczyński in 2016.: „(Russia’s) attempt to enter Kiev is definitely a war, and it is a global war. To enter Warsaw is a world war right away”. The study points out that in fact Poland is dominated by a high level of sense of security. Although the perception of the spreading threat from the East dominates the political narrative. Facts are the premises for such an assessment. The adopted program of modernization of the armed forces dates back to 2023. Small amounts of modern weapons are purchased. The implementation of already adopted programs is stretched over time. The amount of old weapons is still significant and will be in use for many years to come. The article indicates that the importance of cyberspace in shaping security and conducting armed struggle is growing. The possibilities of recognizing, using IT tools in targeting and increasing the effectiveness of combat management are dramatically increasing. There are many indications that the ability to recognize targets has gained an advantage over effectors. We are witnessing the development of the ability to act hostile in times of peace, but it is difficult to conclude that this is an indication of an increase in the threat of war.