Characterising the influence of drought on Jowar crop production in India using association rule mining

Abstract

Drought in India is a natural phenomenon that has detrimental effect on its agricultural sectors. Regular periods of drought limit both the productivity and sustainability of farmers. This paper investigated the influence of drought on one of the major crops in the Maharashtra state of India. Impact of rainfall variations on the Kharif crop Jowar (Sorghum spp) was studied in order to determine the effect of drought on crop production. The study area included 25 districts of Maharashtra and used climate and cropping data from year 1983 to 2012 (30 years). Seasonal Rainfall in millimeters (mm) and crop yield production data in tonnes/hectare (t/h) for Jowar crop were used in the study. Association Rule Mining techniques were carried out on the data set to ascertain the relationship between patterns of rainfall and crop production for the jowar crop. The study examined the temporal and spatial variability in rainfall and crop yield production. Association rules were developed to characterise the crop production for various districts and years related to the drought period. A number of interesting associations were derived with rainfall variability and crop yield production for Maharashtra state of India. It is expected that these techniques could be used for the development of a decision support tool for drought impact for Maharashtra and adapted for other states of India.