Price Forecasting and Quantitative Trading Strategy Based on Ensemble Forecaster

Zijie Wang, Zhule Liu, Hongfu Li
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Abstract

It remains difficult to make a quantitative trading strategy by predicting the former statistics, with the aim of balancing the risks and profits. In this article, we presented an innovative price forecasting and quantitative trading strategy based on ensemble forecaster. The strategy program was designed by the modified Sharpe ratio and PSO, which overcame the original Sharpe ratio’s conservation and the slow program’s convergence rate. And the model was effective and sensitive proved by the disturbance evaluation.
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基于集合预测器的价格预测与定量交易策略
以平衡风险和利润为目的,通过预测前一统计数据来制定量化交易策略仍然是困难的。本文提出了一种基于集合预测器的价格预测与定量交易策略。利用改进的夏普比率和粒子群算法设计策略方案,克服了原有夏普比率守恒性和方案收敛速度慢的缺点。通过扰动评价,证明了该模型的有效性和敏感性。
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