Predicting the Future

Abstract

Planning transport infrastructure takes a good deal of forecasting. It is necessary to estimate future growth of the area, which can be done with scenario planning. In the past, growth projections were based on carrying the most recent past trends from the current situation to some point in the future. This system was accurate for near-term projections, but less so for more distant ones. In recent years, modelers have compensated by developing more reactive policy models that allow for policy changes. Scenario planning, which integrates policy models with geographic information systems (GIS), shows alternative futures resulting from varying policy choices. Metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) are at the forefront of scenario planning. MPOs identify transportation issues and needs. Long-range planning includes analysis of alternatives to meet projected future demands, while maintaining a safe and efficient transportation system to ensure mobility without adverse effects on the environment. Transportation agencies can use scenario planning to conduct analyses for project evaluation in order to ensure that decisions are consistent with future of the region.