Modeling healthcare demand using a hybrid simulation approach

Abstract

This paper describes a hybrid simulation model that uses a system dynamics and discrete event simulation to study the influence of long-term population changes on the demand for healthcare services. A dynamic simulation model implements an aging chain approach to forecast the number of individuals who belong to their respective age-sex cohorts. The demographic parameters that were calculated from a Central Statistical Office Local Data Base were applied to the Wroclaw Region population from 2002 to 2014, and the basic scenario for the projected trends was adopted for a time horizon from 2015 to 2035. The historical data on hospital admissions were obtained from the Regional Health Fund. A discrete event model generates batches of patients with cardiac diseases and modifies the demand according to the demographic changes that were forecasted by a population model. The results offer a well-defined starting point for future research in the health policy field.