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2016 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)最新文献

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Stochastic simulation under input uncertainty for contract-manufacturer selection in pharmaceutical industry 医药行业合同制造商选择的输入不确定性随机模拟
Pub Date : 2016-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822270
A. Akçay, Tugce G. Martagan
We consider a pharmaceutical company that sources a biological product from a set of unreliable contract manufacturers. The likelihood of a manufacturer to successfully deliver the product is estimated via logistic regression as a function of the product attributes. The assignment of a product to the right contract manufacturers is of critical importance for the pharmaceutical company, and simulation-based optimization is used to identify the optimal sourcing decision. However, the input uncertainty due to the uncertain parameters of the logistic regression model often leads to poor sourcing decisions. We quantify the decrease in the expected profit due to input uncertainty as a function of the size of the historical data set, the level of dispersion in the historical data of a product attribute, and the number of products. We also introduce a sampling-based algorithm that reduces the expected decrease in the expected profit.
我们考虑一家制药公司从一组不可靠的合同制造商那里采购生物产品。制造商成功交付产品的可能性通过逻辑回归作为产品属性的函数来估计。将产品分配给合适的合同制造商对制药公司来说至关重要,基于仿真的优化方法用于确定最优采购决策。然而,由于逻辑回归模型参数的不确定性而导致的输入不确定性往往导致采购决策不佳。我们将由于输入不确定性而导致的预期利润的减少量化为历史数据集的大小、产品属性的历史数据的分散程度和产品数量的函数。我们还引入了一种基于抽样的算法,以减少预期利润的预期下降。
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引用次数: 9
Modeling healthcare demand using a hybrid simulation approach 使用混合仿真方法建模医疗保健需求
Pub Date : 2016-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822204
B. Mielczarek, J. Zabawa
This paper describes a hybrid simulation model that uses a system dynamics and discrete event simulation to study the influence of long-term population changes on the demand for healthcare services. A dynamic simulation model implements an aging chain approach to forecast the number of individuals who belong to their respective age-sex cohorts. The demographic parameters that were calculated from a Central Statistical Office Local Data Base were applied to the Wroclaw Region population from 2002 to 2014, and the basic scenario for the projected trends was adopted for a time horizon from 2015 to 2035. The historical data on hospital admissions were obtained from the Regional Health Fund. A discrete event model generates batches of patients with cardiac diseases and modifies the demand according to the demographic changes that were forecasted by a population model. The results offer a well-defined starting point for future research in the health policy field.
本文描述了一个混合仿真模型,该模型使用系统动力学和离散事件仿真来研究长期人口变化对医疗保健服务需求的影响。动态仿真模型采用老龄化链方法预测属于各自年龄-性别群体的个体数量。从中央统计局地方数据库计算的人口统计参数应用于2002年至2014年的弗罗茨瓦夫地区人口,并在2015年至2035年的时间范围内采用预测趋势的基本情景。住院人数的历史数据来自区域卫生基金。离散事件模型生成一批心脏病患者,并根据人口模型预测的人口变化修改需求。这些结果为卫生政策领域的未来研究提供了一个明确的起点。
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引用次数: 18
A primer for hybrid modeling and simulation 混合建模和仿真入门
Pub Date : 2016-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822085
I. Martinez-Moyano, C. Macal
In dealing with complex systems, there is no single “best” possible modeling approach, as each specific system and modeling purpose has subtleties and specific needs. Consequently, in developing models that capture the complexity of real systems, it is useful to combine modeling approaches yielding what is referred to as a hybrid modeling approach. By combining different modeling paradigms, hybrid modeling and simulation provide a more comprehensive and holistic view of the system under investigation and a very powerful approach to understanding complexity. This paper discusses the uses and applications of hybrid modeling, general lessons related to how and when to use such an approach, and relevant tools.
在处理复杂系统时,不存在单一的“最佳”建模方法,因为每个特定的系统和建模目的都有微妙之处和特定的需求。因此,在开发捕获真实系统复杂性的模型时,将建模方法组合起来产生所谓的混合建模方法是很有用的。通过结合不同的建模范例,混合建模和仿真提供了对所研究的系统的更全面和整体的视图,并且是一种非常强大的理解复杂性的方法。本文讨论了混合建模的使用和应用,与如何以及何时使用这种方法相关的一般经验教训,以及相关的工具。
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引用次数: 13
Advanced tutorial: Input uncertainty and robust analysis in stochastic simulation 高级教程:随机模拟中的输入不确定性和鲁棒分析
Pub Date : 2016-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822088
H. Lam
Input uncertainty refers to errors caused by a lack of complete knowledge about the probability distributions used to generate input variates in stochastic simulation. The quantification of input uncertainty is one of the central topics of interest and has been studied over the years among the simulation community. This tutorial overviews some methodological developments in two parts. The first part discusses major established statistical methods, while the second part discusses some recent results from a robust-optimization-based viewpoint and their comparisons to the established methods.
输入不确定性是指由于对随机模拟中用于生成输入变量的概率分布缺乏完全的了解而引起的错误。输入不确定性的量化是仿真界多年来研究的核心问题之一。本教程分两部分概述了一些方法的发展。第一部分讨论了主要的已建立的统计方法,而第二部分从基于鲁棒优化的角度讨论了一些最近的结果,并将它们与已建立的方法进行了比较。
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引用次数: 14
A model predictive control approach for discovering nonstationary fluence-maps in cancer radiotherapy fractionation 肿瘤放疗分诊中发现非平稳通量图的模型预测控制方法
Pub Date : 2016-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822250
A. Ajdari, A. Ghate
We consider an optimization problem in radiotherapy, where the goal is to maximize the biological effect on the tumor of radiation intensity profiles across multiple treatment sessions, while limiting their toxic effects on nearby healthy tissues. We utilize the standard linear-quadratic dose-response model, which yields a nonconvex quadratically constrained quadratic programming (QCQP) formulation. Since nonconvex QCQPs are in general computationally difficult, recent work on this problem has only considered stationary solutions. This restriction allows a convex reformulation, enabling efficient solution. All other generic convexification methods for nonconvex QCQPs also yield a stationary solution in our case. While stationary solutions could be sub-optimal, currently there is no efficient method for finding nonstationary solutions. We propose a model predictive control approach that can, in principle, efficiently discover nonstationary solutions. We demonstrate via numerical experiments on head-and-neck cancer that these nonstationary solutions could produce a larger biological effect on the tumor than stationary.
我们考虑了放射治疗中的一个优化问题,其目标是最大化放射强度分布在多个治疗阶段对肿瘤的生物效应,同时限制其对附近健康组织的毒性作用。我们利用标准的线性二次剂量响应模型,它产生了一个非凸二次约束二次规划(QCQP)公式。由于非凸qcqp通常在计算上很困难,所以最近对这个问题的研究只考虑了平稳解。这个限制允许凸重构,从而实现有效的解决方案。所有其他非凸qcqp的一般凸化方法在我们的情况下也产生一个平稳解。虽然平稳解可能是次优的,但目前还没有有效的方法来寻找非平稳解。我们提出了一种模型预测控制方法,原则上可以有效地发现非平稳解。我们通过头颈癌的数值实验证明,这些非稳态溶液比稳态溶液对肿瘤产生更大的生物学效应。
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引用次数: 4
Analysis tools for stormwater controls on construction sites 建筑地盘雨水管制的分析工具
Pub Date : 2016-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822364
J. Ock, R. Issa, I. Flood
Stormwater discharges from construction activities can have significant impact on water quality by contributing sediments and pollutants to waterbodies. The National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) for most States and the Construction General Permit (CGP) for a few states in the U.S. require the development and implementation of Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) and Best Management Practices (BMPs), which should contain storm water collection and discharge points, and drainage patterns across construction projects. Generally, erosion and sedimentation from disturbed construction sites need to be controled before and after construction. This regulatory compliance frequently results in schedule delays or decreased productivity at the beginning of construction process and violations or failure to implement stormwater management on construction sites increases construction costs. Therefore, an appropriate SWPPP needs to be developed at the planning phase. This study explores the feasibility of utilizing BIM tools for SWPPP and BMPs developments.
建筑活动排放的雨水会对水体产生沉积物和污染物,从而对水质产生重大影响。美国大多数州的国家污染物排放消除系统(NPDES)和少数州的建筑一般许可证(CGP)要求制定和实施雨水污染预防计划(SWPPP)和最佳管理实践(BMPs),其中应包括雨水收集和排放点,以及整个建筑项目的排水模式。一般来说,受扰动的建筑工地的侵蚀和沉积需要在施工前后进行控制。这种法规遵从性经常导致施工过程开始时进度延迟或生产力下降,并且违反或未能在施工现场实施雨水管理增加了施工成本。因此,需要在规划阶段制定适当的SWPPP。本研究探讨了在SWPPP和bmp开发中使用BIM工具的可行性。
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引用次数: 0
Proposal for fully sequential multiarm trials with correlated arms 建议进行相关臂的全序贯多臂试验
Pub Date : 2016-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822401
Ozge Yapar, Noah Gans, S. Chick
We focus on the design of multiarm multistage (MAMS) clinical trials, using ideas from simulation optimization, biostatistics, and health economics. From a trial design perspective, we build on the trend of comparing multiple treatments with a single control by allowing for more than two arms in a trial, and we allow for arbitrarily many stages of sampling by using a diffusion approximation that allows for adaptive stopping rules. From a simulation perspective, our techniques extend the correlated knowledge-gradient concept, which has been used in one-stage lookahead (knowledge gradient) procedures, to Bayesian fully sequential selection procedures.
我们专注于设计多臂多阶段(MAMS)临床试验,使用模拟优化,生物统计学和卫生经济学的思想。从试验设计的角度来看,我们建立在将多个处理与单个对照进行比较的趋势上,允许在试验中使用两个以上的臂,并且我们通过使用允许自适应停止规则的扩散近似来允许任意多个采样阶段。从模拟的角度来看,我们的技术扩展了相关知识梯度的概念,这已经在一阶段的前瞻性(知识梯度)过程中使用,到贝叶斯全顺序选择过程。
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引用次数: 2
Hybrid modeling for vineyard harvesting operations 葡萄园收获操作的混合建模
Pub Date : 2016-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822213
Mohammed Mesabbah, A. Mahfouz, Mohamed A. F. Ragab, A. Arisha
Hiring workers under seasonal recruiting contracts causes significant variation of workers skills in the vineyards. This leads to inconsistent workers performance, reduction in harvesting efficiency, and increasing in grape losses rates. The objective of this research is to investigate how the variation in workers experience could impact vineyard harvesting productivity and operational cost. The complexity of the problem means that it is difficult to analyze the system parameters and their relationships using individual analytical model. Hence, a hybrid model integrating discrete event simulation (DES) and agent based modeling (ABM) is developed and applied on a vineyard to achieve research objective. DES models harvesting operation and simulates process performance, while ABM addresses the seasonal workers heterogeneous characteristics, particularly experience variations and disparity of working days in the vineyard. The model is used to evaluate two seasonal recruiting policies against vineyard productivity, grape losses quantities, and total operational cost.
根据季节性招聘合同雇用工人会导致葡萄园工人技能的显著差异。这导致工人表现不一致,收获效率降低,葡萄损失率增加。本研究的目的是调查工人经验的变化如何影响葡萄园的收获生产力和运营成本。问题的复杂性意味着很难用单个的分析模型来分析系统参数和它们之间的关系。为此,本文建立了离散事件仿真(DES)与agent based modeling (ABM)相结合的混合模型,并将其应用于某葡萄园的研究中。DES模拟收获操作并模拟过程性能,而ABM则解决了季节性工人的异质性特征,特别是葡萄园工作日的经验变化和差异。该模型用于评估两种季节性招聘政策对葡萄园生产力、葡萄损失数量和总运营成本的影响。
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引用次数: 7
Using hybrid simulation modeling to assess the dynamics of compassion fatigue in veterinarian general practitioners 利用混合仿真模型评估兽医全科医生同情心疲劳的动态
Pub Date : 2016-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822189
Andrew J. Tekippe, Caroline C. Krejci
Veterinarians have experienced disturbing trends related to workplace-induced stress. This is partly attributed to high levels of compassion fatigue, the emotional strain of unalleviated stress from interactions with those suffering from traumatic events. This paper presents a three-stage hybrid model designed to study the dynamics of compassion fatigue in veterinarians. A discrete event simulation that represents the work environment is used to generate client and patient attributes, and the veterinarian's utilization throughout the day. These values become inputs to a system dynamics model that simulates the veterinarian's interpretation of the work environment to produce quantifiable emotional responses in terms of eight emotions. The emotional responses are mapped to the Professional Quality of Life Scale, which enables the calculation of compassion satisfaction, burnout, and secondary traumatic stress measures. A pilot study using the hybrid model was conducted to assess the viability of the proposed approach, which yielded statistically significant results.
兽医们经历了与工作场所引起的压力有关的令人不安的趋势。这部分归因于高水平的同情疲劳,即与遭受创伤事件的人互动所带来的未缓解的压力。本文提出了一个三阶段混合模型,旨在研究兽医同情疲劳的动态。代表工作环境的离散事件模拟用于生成客户和患者属性,以及兽医全天的利用率。这些值成为系统动力学模型的输入,该模型模拟兽医对工作环境的解释,以八种情绪产生可量化的情绪反应。情绪反应被映射到职业生活质量量表,它可以计算同情满意度,倦怠和二次创伤压力措施。使用混合模型进行了一项试点研究,以评估所提出方法的可行性,结果具有统计学意义。
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引用次数: 4
Applying a disparate network of models for complex airspace problems 应用不同的模型网络来解决复杂的空域问题
Pub Date : 2016-12-11 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2016.7822234
F. Wieland, Rohit Sharma, A. Tyagi, M. Santos, Jyotirmaya Nanda, Yingchuan Zhang
Modeling and simulation in the aviation community is characterized by specialized models built to solve specific problems. Some models are statistically-based, relying on averages and distribution functions using Monte-Carlo techniques to answer policy questions. Others are physics-based, relying on differential equations describing such phenomena as the physics of flight, communication errors and frequency congestion, noise production, atmospheric wake generation, and other phenomena to provide detailed insight into study questions. Several years ago, researchers at Intelligent Automation, Incorporated (IAI) recognized that many of the physics-based aviation models, while conceptually similar, were difficult to interoperate because of varying assumptions regarding particular aspects of flight dynamics. Despite this difficulty, the aviation community routinely use these diverse physics-based models for a single coherent study. IAI researchers have since constructed an automated method for interoperating these models in a manner that produces consistent, coherent, and comparable results even with computations that otherwise use different assumptions.
航空界的建模和仿真的特点是为解决特定问题而建立专门的模型。一些模型是基于统计的,依靠平均值和分布函数,使用蒙特卡罗技术来回答政策问题。另一些则是基于物理的,依赖于描述飞行物理、通信错误和频率拥塞、噪声产生、大气尾流产生和其他现象等现象的微分方程,为研究问题提供详细的见解。几年前,智能自动化公司(Intelligent Automation, Incorporated, IAI)的研究人员认识到,许多基于物理的航空模型虽然在概念上相似,但由于对飞行动力学的特定方面有不同的假设,因此难以互操作。尽管有这些困难,航空界还是经常使用这些不同的基于物理的模型来进行一个连贯的研究。此后,IAI的研究人员构建了一种自动化的方法来互操作这些模型,即使使用不同的假设进行计算,也能产生一致、连贯和可比较的结果。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
2016 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)
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