SUBSTANTIATION OF PROJECTS IN THE SPACE DEBRIS MARKET IN THE AGE OF NEW SPACE

Abstract

The article highlights research, dedicated to the study of the peculiarities of justification of the projects in the emerging space debris market in the age of New Space. It has been proved that human-induced debris in orbital space has reached catastrophic proportions, which requires making immediate changes for sustainable development of space activity. The research objective resides in the development of theoretical and methodological foundations, scientific and methodological approaches, and a practical toolkit for justifying projects in the emerging space debris market. The methodological platform of the research included the Stakeholder concept as an eco-system of interrelated groups. One built the BCG matrix of growth of the “Access to outer space” sector of the global market of space products and services. Also, there were distinguished four groups of space services for this segment using two factors – “the share of the types of space services” and “the relative share of the service market.” During the research, the authors developed a matrix for analysis of the project stakeholders in the emerging space debris market. It has been identified that there are three groups of stakeholders by the factors’ levels “Influence – Interest”: partners – alpha-stakeholders ( -stakeholders), consultants and support – beta-stakeholders ( -stakeholders). A situational model for the choice of a negotiating strategy for the development of projects in the space debris management market has been developed based on the methodological approach of “decision tree” to determine a rational negotiating strategy for reduction of destructive behaviour and avoidance of organizational conflicts among residential stakeholders. It was proposed to determine the general efficiency of the projects in the emerging space debris market based on the methodology by M. Farrell: as production of technical effectiveness and allocative (distributional) efficiency. All components of general efficiency were analyzed by the authors who also provided analytical calculation formulae: technical, economic, social, and ecological. A method of determining expenditures for a project on emerging space debris on the assumption of an alternative cost of projects and determining the stage of the project’s life cycle has been proposed. Making decisions on the project development requires structural analysis of expenditures of operating activity by the life cycle stages. To do that, the operating activity costs should be structures in the following way: preproduction costs; production costs; off-production costs; postproduction costs. The following main parameters used for making managerial decisions during project development were considered: profitability, the cost of deferred decisions, and deviation from costs. It was discovered that project development is carried out in the risk and uncertainty conditions. The authors formed a system for assessing risks, related to financing of the projects on recycling of space debris, which grounds on risks classification (technical, financial, procedural), which enabled the possibility to develop risk management strategies. The risk groups were analyzed following the requirements of stakeholders.