Global Manipulation by Local Obfuscation

Abstract

We study information design in a regime change context. A continuum of agents choose independently whether to attack the current regime and will succeed if and only if the mass of attackers outweighs the regime's strength. The strength is uncertain, and the information designer chooses a strength-dependent experiment to maintain the status quo. The optimal information structure randomizes between partial truth-telling and local exaggeration across agents: some agents receive a signal matching the true strength of the status quo, and others receive an elevated signal professing slightly higher strength. Optimal local obfuscation strictly dominates public signals, and in certain cases where public signals become futile, local obfuscation still guarantees the status quo's survival.