Managing Uncertainty - Inspirations from the Game of Chess

Nicolas Gisiger
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Abstract

The rise of the multi-option society has brought a tremendous abundance of choice. Generally valid action principles fail to simplify the task of optimal behaviour in such an environment. We find that meaningful action principles can be drawn from the game of chess which shares some characteristics with the multi-option society. Several important principles are reformulated for the purpose of better decision-making. In such a world, a virtuous person is not the one whose targets are too concrete, thereby binding him on a way without divergences. Taking an advantage is the one who can endure uncertainty, sustain flexibility, and seize an opportunity. Finally, we conclude that these principles might provide powerful action theories for the explanation of sociological phenomena arising in complex environments.
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管理不确定性——来自国际象棋的启示
多选项社会的兴起带来了大量的选择。一般有效的行动原则不能简化这种环境下的最佳行为任务。我们发现象棋游戏具有多选项社会的一些特点,可以从中得出有意义的行动原则。为了更好地决策,重新拟订了几项重要原则。在这样的世界里,一个有德行的人并不是把目标太具体,从而把他束缚在一条没有分歧的道路上。利用优势的人能够忍受不确定性,保持灵活性,抓住机会。最后,我们得出结论,这些原理可能为解释复杂环境中出现的社会学现象提供强有力的行动理论。
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