Demand Forecasting of Trading Companies Based on Time Sequence

Abstract

CV Lancar Jaya Sakti is a trading company that has not applied forecasting methods in procurement and longterm inventory analysis, so there is no certainty or basis for making requests for goods from suppliers. The purpose of this study is to describe how the demand forecasting method can be applied as a basis for making decisions to minimize the risks that will occur in the future. The technique used in this research is descriptive with quantitative forecasting. The results showed a decrease in sales demands in the forecast period of 2021. This is mostly due to unpredictable external factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic and government policy. The advice given is to optimize the existing resources using the SWOT AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) method. The contribution of this research is to prove how the implementation of demand forecasting can solve problems that result in a company's financial losses. The limitation of this research is the sales flow of CV Lancar Jaya Sakti. Keywords—demand forecasting, time sequence, risk