Cloud motion estimation for short term solar irradiation prediction

Abstract

Variability of solar energy is the most significant issue for integrating solar energy into the power Grid. There are pressing demands to develop methods to accurately estimate cloud motion that directly affects the stability of solar power output.We propose a solar prediction system that can detect cloud movements from the TSI (total sky imager) images, and then estimate the future cloud position over solar panels and subsequent solar irradiance fluctuations incurred by cloud transients. The experiment studies show that our proposed approach significantly improves the quality of cloud motion estimation within a time window (up to a few minutes) that is sufficient for grid operators to take actions to mitigate the solar power volatility.