Dampak Krisis Sub-Prime Mortgage Terhadap Ekonomi Makro Dan Pasar Modal di Indonesia

H. Umar
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Abstract

The research aimed to find the relationship among customer price index, exchange rate, the world price of oil and mining sector index as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis, and to determine the impact of the sub-prime mortgage crisis on the relationship among macro economic variables. The data used in the period January 2000 to April 2013. The analytical tool used are the Vector Autoregression (VAR), impulse response function (IRF) and variance decomposition (VD). This study found that 1) there is a relationship among customer price index, exchange rate, the world price of oil and mining sector index, but no cointergation among them, 2) there is an impact of sub-prime mortgage crisis on relationship among macro economic variables examined.
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次级抵押贷款危机对宏观经济和资本市场的影响
本研究旨在寻找次贷危机导致的客户价格指数、汇率、世界石油价格和矿业指数之间的关系,并确定次贷危机对宏观经济变量之间关系的影响。使用的数据为2000年1月至2013年4月。使用的分析工具是向量自回归(VAR)、脉冲响应函数(IRF)和方差分解(VD)。研究发现:1)客户价格指数与汇率、世界石油价格和矿业指数之间存在一定的关系,但它们之间不存在协整关系;2)次贷危机对宏观经济变量之间的关系存在影响。
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